Climate policy decisions are particularly difficult to make because the accuracy of climate projections is difficult to evaluate. Even if the changes themselves were predictable, the consequences of those changes are not. Thus, the relative benefits and dangers of a particular course of action are difficult to determine.

In the 1980's, such books as W. J. Maunder's The Uncertainty Business: Risks and Opportunities in Weather and Climate (1986) emphasized the risks and opportunities presented by Earth's natural climate, subject to contingent human influences. Since then, mainly as a result of the works of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emphasis has moved markedly to considerations of the human impact on the climate system. However, irrespective of this change in emphasis, weather and climate have always given rise to risks and opportunities, and communities and individuals who can adapt to these challenges will always be in a position to lessen the costs of climate variations and climate changes. They will also be in a better position to increase the benefits and profits arising from climate variations and climate changes.

In Maunder's follow-up project, The Human Impact of Climate Uncertainty: Weather Information, Economic Planning and Business Management (1989), most of the emphasis was on variations in the natural climate. While these remain important, during the following twenty years a greater emphasis was placed on anthropogenic effects on the climate system. Nevertheless, good economic planning should take into account the best possible advice from climate experts on likely climatic changes during the relevant planning horizons, regardless of the causes of those changes.

To understand how a society might best respond to a change in its regional--as well as the global--climate, it is highly desirable to know how societies have been affected by, and how they have coped with, past climatic events, such as droughts, warm periods, cold periods, and wet periods. The climate of the future might not be exactly parallel to the climate of the past, particularly if anthropogenic factors become significantly more influential. Barring unforeseeable shocks to social and economic systems, however, socioeconomic institutions are likely to act in ways similar to their actions in the past. With better climate forecasts, societies can act in a much more informed manner to eradicate their weaknesses and capitalize on their strengths. Socioeconomic organizations would then be better prepared for future climate change, even if the nature of that change remains uncertain.

If organizations and individuals are going to take a positive attitude in dealing with climate change, again considering climate change from all causes, it is important that they understand the uncertainties of any climate forecast. The forecasts made by the various reports from the IPCC must be taken into account, but these forecasts have been subject to changes since the first IPCC report was published in the early 1990's, and they will continue to be modified as new information comes to light. Furthermore, while the majority of climate scientists generally agree with the forecasts made by IPCC scientists, there is a sizable group of climate scientists who have considerable concerns about the lack of emphasis being placed on the natural causes of climate change.

In particular, some scientists believe that the IPCC minimizes the role of variations in solar output, volcanic eruptions, the oceans, and other factors beyond human control. From a policy point of view, therefore, it is important for decision makers to take note not only of the average and extreme values forecast by the various IPCC reports but also of the possibility that some of these forecasts may prove to be wrong, particularly as the natural causes of climate change become better understood. Caution, therefore, should be a key concern, and decision makers concerned with climate change should be aware of the uncertainties involved in understanding and predicting that change.

Society would benefit considerably from correct policy decisions based on accurate climate forecasts. The world of climate forecasting and the world of decision making, however, are both far from perfect. The state of contemporary climate forecasting in particular is difficult to assess, because new computer models are making predictions about events decades in the future, and the accuracy of those predictions and their underlying methodology will not be known until decades have passed. Even accurate scientific predictions must be interpreted through the lens of policy and politics, adding a significant further complication.

For example, the 2007 IPCC report, states:

… continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming, and induce many changes in the global climate system during the twenty-first century that would "very likely" be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

Similarly, the 2007 IPCC report gives a best estimate, and a likely range of best estimates, for a global average temperature range for the last decade of the twenty-first century compared with the last two decades of the twentieth century.

Depending on the climatic greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario used, the best estimates of temperature increase range from 0.6° Celsius to 4.0° Celsius, and the likely range within these scenarios extends from 0.3° Celsius to 6.4° Celsius. Given these ranges, policy makers must determine which is the most appropriate forecast to use and how such a forecast will be used in planning activities in the future. Relevant activities vary widely, from constructing dams, to building roads to ski resorts, to planting new vineyards, and even to wholesale relocation of island inhabitants to avoid the consequences of sea-level rise.

The 2007 IPCC report projects many regional impacts of climate change during the next one hundred years. Under a range of climate scenarios, Africa's arid and semiarid land is projected to increase by 5-8 percent by 2080. In Europe, climate change is expected to magnify the regional differences in the distribution of natural resources and assets. Negative impacts will include the increased risk of inland flash floods, more frequent coastal flooding, and increased erosion due to storminess and sea-level rise. North American cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity, and duration of heat waves, with potential for adverse health impacts. Whether such forecasts are correct and whether society adapts itself to such forecasts remains to be seen.

Bibliography:

1)         Emanuel, K. "Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past Thirty Years." Nature 436 (2005): 686-688.

2)         Maunder, W. J. The Uncertainty Business: Risks and Opportunities in Weather and Climate. London: Methuen, 1986.

3)         Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every Fifteen Hundred Years. Rev. ed. Blue Ridge Summit, Pa.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008.

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