Most literature uses the term "environmental refugees" or "climate refugees" to conceptualize the complex relationships between human migration and climate change. In the 1970's, Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute defined environmental refugees as people forced to leave their traditional habitats, temporarily or permanently, because of marked environmental disruptions.

Migration caused by environmental degradation is not a new phenomenon. People throughout history have migrated in order to seek new opportunities and resources for survival. What makes climate-change- related displacement different is the scale of the problem and the size of the population affected by them. Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme warn that human mass migration caused by climate change can turn into humanitarian crises and a global security threat, because the change of settlement may cause conflict over resources within nations or in host communities.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that 24 million people around the world will be displaced because of floods, famines, and other environmental factors by 2050. The Stein Review and Friends of the Earth both predict that by that year 200 million people will become climate change migrants worldwide, including one million from small island states affected by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and severe drought resulting from rising sea levels, deforestation, dry-land degradation, and natural disasters. Christian Aid makes the most extreme prediction: One billion people will be forcibly displaced by 2050.

The impact of global warming is twofold: First, climate change increases the variability of extreme weather events associated with the changes in surface temperature and precipitation. This results in floods, droughts, and a high incidence of diseases that affect both human and animal health. Second, rising sea levels mean loss of farmland, accelerating shoreline erosion, and disruption of agricultural production.

For example, in Egypt, the anticipated rise in sea level could cause 12 to 15 percent loss of arable land by 2050, and consequently 14 million people would be forced to disperse. In Bangladesh, a 1 meter increase in sea level would inundate half of Bangladeshi rice land, forcing the relocation of 40 million people (Vine, 2005).

Studies show that climate-change-related displacement has a negative impact on the well-being of migrants. The process may cause severe long-term stress and psychological effects. Prolonged uprooting may result in culture and identity loss. Displaced people become landless, homeless, and unemployed, and they are restricted from getting access to common property resources in new areas. The weakening of community ties will reduce their social networks and further reinforce social marginalization.

The IPCC warns that climate-related migration may increase the risk of group-identity conflict and political instability within states. Reduced water availability, for example, may induce conflict between different water users, such as pastoralists and farmers. People may resort to violence to gain dominant control over limited natural resources. The grievance could increase recruitment opportunities for rebel movements and lead to civil war. Environmental scarcity could also bring about conflict across borders. Water scarcity can cause transboundary disputes.

Migration would also bring problems to host communities or nations, especially if they are not well prepared for the influx of migrants. The rising numbers of migrants will exert pressure on resources and social services. The migrants themselves will compete for jobs, and that competition may increase social tensions and intergroup clashes (Friends of the Earth Australia, 2007). In order to curb the influx of migrants, host societies may change their immigration laws and restrict asylum. International law does not require states to provide asylum to those displaced by environmental degradation.

The literature suggests that the impact of climate change on human migration is complex. The causes of migration are multiple, and many problems created by climate change build on existing development problems, such as socioeconomic vulnerability, political suppression, and institutional weakening. The consequences of climate-change-induced migration also depend on the rate of recovery, adaptive capability, preparedness for disasters, and effectiveness of conflict resolution mechanisms.

Questions as to whether the deterioration of environmental conditions by climate change is sudden or gradual, whether the displacement is temporary or permanent, and whether migrants are victims or strategists who choose to migrate because of foreseeable opportunities in a new environment need to be carefully examined.

To address these problems, disaster preparedness must be improved; this includes building better adverse-weather advance-warning systems for vulnerable areas. Effective conflict resolution mechanisms can be developed to settle disputes. Governments can increase community resilience by reducing soil erosion and deforestation and enhancing awareness about sustainable use of resources. Better coordinated assistance is needed to reconstruct the livelihoods of the displaced. Land-based resettlement, rehousing, social inclusion, improved health care, and building community assets and services are a few strategies to reduce the impact of migration.

References

1. Friends of the Earth Australia. A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees. Melbourne, Vic.: Author, 2007.

2. Vine, David. "The Other Migrants: Cause and Prevention in Involuntary Displacement and the Question of 'Environmental Refugees.'" In International Migration and the Millennium Development Goals. New York: United Nations Population Fund, 2005.

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