The precautionary approach, or precautionary principle, is a major principle of environmental policy in the presence of fundamental uncertainties. It can be traced to the early 1950's, when economist Sigfried von Ciriacy-Wantrup advocated a "safe minimum standard of conservation" as a policy goal. It can now be found in many international and national policy documents and conventions.

Uncertainties are the result of a lack of scientific knowledge or final proof of the consequences of human activities. Many of the effects of human consumption and production on both human and environmental health, including Earth's climate, are not yet known with certainty. Traditionally, science policy experts have argued that a final scientific proof should be reached prior to taking political actions such as mandating a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or banning chemicals.

Some experts, however, have advocated taking action to protect the environment even if final proofs cannot be delivered or if scientists differ in their assessment of environmental risk.

The precautionary principle is a principle that tries to retain future development options and avoid irreversible effects. It is also a major element in policies pursuing sustainable development (Axelrod, 2004). Policy fields engaging with the precautionary approach include not only climate change policy but also policies regarding the release and admission of chemicals and genetically modified organisms.

Referring to climate change, political decision makers have two alternatives. They can await final scientific proof that anthropogenic GHG emissions cause irreversible changes to the Earth's climate, or they can take immediate action. In the former case, no costs would be borne by today's generation, but there is a risk of tremendous cost to future generations if scientists are right and the Earth's mean temperature rises significantly (Botterill, 2003). In the latter case, costs may be substantial to today's generation but future generations could be saved from bearing the enormous costs of climate change.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has acknowledged the importance of the precautionary principle in climate change policies by aiming at a stabilization of "greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system." The convention does not specify the target level of GHG concentrations in the absence of a final scientific proof determining that level. However, the precautionary principle realizes that decisions have to be made under conditions of uncertainty and that they may have irreversible effects. Therefore, the parties to the convention agreed to take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures. . . . Scientific evidence suggests that costs of a precautionary policy today may be much less than future costs of climate change in the case that no action were taken today.

References

1. Axelrod, Regina S., David Leonard Downie, and Norman J. Vig, eds. The Global Environment: Institutions, Law, and Policy. 2d ed. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2004.

2. Botterill, Linda C., and Melanie Fisher, eds. Beyond Drought: People, Policy, and Perspectives. Collingwood, Vic.: CSIRO, 2003.

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