As Earth's climate changes, some workers may leave adversely affected regions and migrate to other areas. Other workers will remain in place but may be forced to seek different employment as industries become less viable or are damaged by extreme weather events. In some cases, new economic opportunities will arise from mitigation and adaptation efforts.

At present, human communities are more vulnerable to extreme weather events than to gradual change. Nonetheless, over time communities will be affected by global warming. As is usually the case, poorer communities will be more vulnerable than wealthier ones. Agriculture will be more affected than industry by gradual climate change, because industry is more adaptable. Extreme weather events, a likely product of global warming, will often negatively affect industries. Workers will often be forced to seek employment in new jobs when their old employers lose their viability. In some regions, workers may be forced to migrate from severely affected regions to those less affected, even when this means crossing national borders.

Global warming is expected to produce several impacts. Some, such as increasingly warmer weather or decreased precipitation, would be gradual. Most scientists agree, however, that global warming is also likely to produce more extreme weather, particularly in the tropics. The scenarios produced by the working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that warmer weather will likely produce more and larger hurricanes and cyclones in the tropics, as well as more intense rainstorms or droughts in some areas. The occurrence of specific extreme events is difficult to predict on a long-term basis, so it will be difficult to plan for such events in any one specific area. Nonetheless, it is possible to indicate some regions that will be likely to experience more extreme weather events, such as Category 5 hurricanes (those with wind speeds over 241 kilometers per hour).

In the United States, for example, the IPCC scenarios indicate that Florida and the Gulf Coast will experience more hurricanes and, more important, hurricanes of greater magnitude. Worldwide, several cities, such as Miami in the United States and Mumbai in India, are situated along coasts vulnerable to hurricanes and cyclones; consequently, industries in these cities are vulnerable to the flooding and wind damage produced by large storms. It may be possible to adapt to stronger storms, especially in the industrial nations, but they will often produce short-term disruption that leads some businesses to close temporarily or eventually to move elsewhere. Even in industrialized countries, increased insurance costs may lead some businesses to move from coastal areas to inland locations. Businesses in less industrialized countries may simply close or move elsewhere rather than trying to rebuild when faced with major devastation. When manufacturing plants close because of extreme weather, skilled workers are forced to migrate elsewhere, although they may be able to find comparable jobs.

The increase in number and intensity of hurricanes will have a negative impact on low-wage employers in hurricane-prone areas in both industrial and less industrialized nations, as these businesses often do not have the capital to rebuild. Also, some people who are forced to relocate by severe weather events never return to their old homes. Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in 2005, left many people without jobs or homes. Some of the people who left New Orleans returned to the city, but many moved elsewhere, never to return.

Climate change and extreme weather events are likely to harm the tourist industry in several areas. The presence of more powerful storms in the tropics (a likely event in most climate scenarios) may deter some tourists from visiting beachfront resorts. Resorts often will be faced with added costs of operation, such as insurance costs, that will force some to close. In mountain areas, higher temperatures that come from gradual warming will affect snowpack, making it difficult to sustain ski resorts. Already, some ski resorts in the North Carolina mountains are being forced to close by the lack of enough snow to sustain their business. Many resort workers are seasonal and will be able to find work elsewhere, but many are permanent residents who will have to relocate in order to find work.

Bibliography:

1)         Agnew, M. D., and D. Viner. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on International Tourism." Tourism and Hospitality Research 3 (2001): 37-60.

2)         Faris, Stephan. Forecast. New York: Henry Holt, 2009.

3)         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change, 2007--Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by Martin Parry et al. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

4)         Jorgenson, Dale W., et al. U.S. Market Consequences of Global Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2004.

5)         Stern, Nicholas. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

6)         Unruh, J., M. Krol, and N. Kliot. Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration. New York: Springer, 2004.

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